NEW YORK (GenomeWeb News) – The global genomics life science research tools market is projected to grow 6 percent annually during the next five years, with the next-generation sequencing market estimated to increase 16 percent annually, a life science market research firm said in a report published today.
In its report, Los Angeles-based DeciBio estimates that by 2016 the broader LS research tools space will reach $45.8 billion, up from $37.4 billion in 2011, a compound annual growth rate of 4 percent. Within that market, DeciBio said, the genomics market is projected to grow to $8.9 billion by 2016, compared to $6.8 billion in 2011, driven by the continued adoption of next-gen sequencing.
In an e-mail to GenomeWeb Daily News, Stéphane Budel, a partner in DeciBio, said genomics "is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the life science research tools space," and added that next-gen sequencing "is really changing the game."
By 2016, the next-gen sequencing space is expected to reach $2.25 billion, up from $1.05 billion in 2011, a growth rate that comes despite a decline in reagent and instrument costs. During the past five years, the report said, the technological capabilities of the technology has outpaced expectations, and the price of sequencing an entire genome has fallen to $3,000 today from $3 billion a decade ago.
Moving ahead, the resequencing of human genomes for discovery of genetic variations, as well as repeat sequencing and expression analysis of cancer biopsies will continue to drive adoption of the technology. At the same time, development of protocols around new applications — such as methylation and miRNA de novo discovery — and the development of more affordable platforms, such as Ion Torrent's Personal Genome Machine and Ion Proton, and Illumina's MiSeq, will be crucial growth drivers, according to DeciBio.
Good news for next-gen sequencing, however, may mean trouble for microarrays and capillary electrophoresis sequencing, and both technologies will need to find niche applications and customers, Budel said. The microarray space is expected to slide 1 percent CAGR during the next five years to $1.30 billion in 2016, with a drop-off in gene expression offset by CGH/SNP arrays. CE sequencing is anticipated to contract 2 percent CAGR to $600 million by 2016.
Another high-growth technology area is digital PCR, which DeciBio estimated will spike 90 percent CAGR to $250 million in 2016 from $10 million in 2011. The technology is "finally receiving backing from big hitters," such as Life Tech and Bio-Rad Laboratories, Budel said.
Bio-Rad entered the digital PCR space with its $162 million buy of QuantaLife last fall.
Among other technologies in the genomics space, DeciBio said that between 2011 and 2016 qPCR will see a 6 percent CAGR uptick to $2.95 billion, and PCR will inch up 1 percent to $950 million.
Also, DeciBio projects 4 percent CAGR to $3.9 billion for the proteomics space between 2011 and 2016.
Growth in the overall LS research tools market will be fueled by demand in the so-called BRIC nations — Brazil, Russia, India, and China — which are expected to grow 13 percent CAGR, the report said.
While the US and Europe will be challenged by flat government funding, the Brazilian and Chinese life science research tools space is each projected to grow by at least 15 percent, while the Indian market should grow between 10 percent and 15 percent, and the Russian market is projected at 5 percent to 10 percent growth, DeciBio said.
Also driving growth will be the applied markets, which DeciBio projected to increase 12 percent CAGR between 2011 and 2016. High-growth applied markets include ag-bio, food pathogen, and environmental and water testing, it added.
According to DeciBio, the firms that have best taken advantage of high-growth market opportunities have been large firms with diversified portfolios, such as Life Technologies, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Becton Dickinson, and Sigma-Aldrich.