NEW YORK – 10x Genomics said Wednesday after the close of the market that it expects 2025 revenues to be in the range of $610 million to $630 million, representing flat to 3 percent growth over 2024. However, the guidance did not consider the potential effects of a recent plan from the Trump administration to cap the amount that the National Institutes of Health provides in indirect costs associated with research grants.
On a conference call following the release of the firm's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, 10x CEO and Cofounder Serge Saxonov said, "Generally speaking, our customers use direct funds to purchase our products, including instruments and so on."
Still, up to 25 percent of the firm's revenues are tied to NIH-funded projects. The effects of the "heightened uncertainty" raised by the NIH plan — released late Friday and now subject to multiple lawsuits — are not entirely clear for life science tools providers such as 10x.
10x officials said that assuming an 8 percent across-the-board funding cut — which is not exactly what NIH has proposed — 2025 revenues would fall by $10 million to $15 million. That represents 10x's "best estimate" and an attempt to be transparent, company officials said.
The guidance already includes "a roughly mid-single-digit decrease in NIH-funded projects for our customers," or approximately $7 million, CFO Adam Taich said. "We knew things were shaky before the indirect [cost] news came out," he said.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Kyle Mikson noted that if the proposed 15 percent cap on the indirect costs in NIH grants is finalized, 10x could face a $10 million to $15 million headwind in 2025.
10x's guidance generally assumes "no change to the overall macroeconomic environment," Taich said, and also does not consider the effects of other recent developments affecting tools providers, namely Illumina and its troubles in China. Though many 10x single-cell customers do their sequencing on Illumina instruments, the firm's technology is compatible with any sequencing technology. "It's straightforward to switch to another sequencer, and that's what's happening in many cases over there," Saxonov said. "We don't anticipate a major impact from the fact that Illumina could be taken out of some of our customers' labs there." China represents 9 percent of 10x's business, but he said the firm's risk there is "reasonably contained."
Taich noted that the firm expects Chromium consumables to be "modestly down this year as our lower-priced products become a larger portion of our sales."
Prior to the call, 10x reported that its fourth quarter revenues were down 10 percent year over year, while full-year revenues were down 1 percent, in line with preliminary estimates.
For the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2024, revenues for the single-cell and spatial biology firm totaled $165.0 million compared to $184.0 million in the year-ago period, while Wall Street analysts had expected $165.0 million.
Total instrument revenues were $24.3 million, down 37 percent from $38.4 million in the prior-year period. Chromium single-cell instrument sales for the quarter fell 2 percent to $10.9 million from $11.2 million a year ago, while Visium and Xenium spatial instrument sales fell 51 percent to $13.4 million from $27.3 million, driven by fewer Xenium placements.
Total consumables revenues were $133.5 million, down 5 percent from $140.3 million in Q4 2023. Consumables sales for Chromium dropped 17 percent to $97.7 million from $118.1 million a year ago, while combined Visium and Xenium consumables sales grew 61 percent to $35.8 million from $22.2 million a year ago.
Service revenues grew 35 percent to $7.1 million from $5.3 million a year ago.
By geographic region, revenues in the Americas were $84.3 million, down 16 percent from $103.8 million in the prior-year period. Revenues in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa were $49.8 million, down 2 percent from $50.6 million. Revenues in the Asia-Pacific region were $28.0 million, down 5 percent from $29.5 million.
Saxonov noted that the firm launched several new products in 2024, including Visium HD and a new single-cell Chromium chip architecture.
The firm's net loss for the quarter was $49.0 million, or $.40 per share, compared to a loss of $49.0 million, or $.41 per share, in Q4 2023. Wall Street analysts, on average, estimated a net loss of $.11 per share.
10x's R&D expenses for the quarter were $67.0 million, up 3 percent from $65.3 million a year ago, while its SG&A expenses rose 9 percent year over year to $93.8 million from $86.1 million in Q4 2023.
For the full year of 2024, 10x reported total revenues of $610.8 million compared to $618.7 million in 2023 and narrowly beating the consensus estimate of $610.7 million.
Instrument revenues were $92.7 million, down 25 percent from $123.5 million in 2023. Chromium instrument sales for the year dropped to $35.2 million from $47.9 million, while sales of spatial instruments fell 24 percent, year over year, to $57.5 million from $75.6 million the year prior.
10x sold more than 7,000 instruments during 2024, including 5,808 Chromium instruments, 810 Visium CytAssist instruments, and 421 Xenium instruments.
Consumables revenues for the year were $493.4 million, up 3 percent from $479.6 million the year prior. Consumables sales for Chromium fell 11 percent, year over year, to $372.3 million from $420.3 million, and spatial consumables sales more than doubled to $121.1 million from $59.2 million.
Service revenues were $24.6 million, up 57 percent from $15.7 million in 2023.
By region, 2024 revenues in the Americas were $334.3 million, down 7 percent from $373.2 million in 2023. Revenues in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa were $159.8 million, up 12 percent from $142.3 million. Revenues in Asia-Pacific were flat at $103.3 million.
The firm's net loss for 2024 totaled $182.6 million, or $1.52 per share, compared to a loss of $255.1 million, or $2.18 per share, in 2023.
10x's R&D costs for the year fell 2 percent to $264.7 million from $270.3 million in 2023, while SG&A expenses were flat at $344.3 million. Higher outside legal expenses were offset by lower personnel costs, Taich said.
10x ended 2024 with $344.1 million in cash and cash equivalents and $49.3 million in marketable securities.
In Thursday morning trading on the Nasdaq, shares of 10x Genomics were down 3 percent at $11.65.