Richard Resnick, writing at the sequence data management firm Genome Quest's blog, discusses his expectations of the "implications of exponential growth of global whole genome sequencing capacity." Resnick expects that by 2011, "catalogues of human variation will become large-scale for the first time," and that "early-stage sequence-based diagnostics will find their way into the leading-edge labs and hospitals." By 2012, he expects somewhere around 250,000 human genomes to have been sequenced, whereas 2013 will evoke "consumer awareness," Resnick suggests, as more than 1 million human genomes will have been mapped. He expects 5 million genomes the following year, and that "many cancers in the first world will be sequenced as a regular component of a biopsy ... hospitals will offer whole-genome sequencing services to newborns ... chronic pain will be managed on a genotype-by-genotype basis," and more, he writes. Between 2015 and 2020, he says that genomics will have "drastic impacts on society," and that it is not unreasonable to expect that "the ability to sequence 25 million genomes just five years from now seems well within the industry’s grasp." Resnick expects "just under 1 billion genomes" by 2020.
Resnick says that he's "no futurist," and acknowledges that significant setbacks could always delay progress. "We’re squarely in 2010, the year of the 1,000 genomes. The deeper we allow ourselves to look into the future, the less clear it becomes." To close his post, Resnick asks for feedback, and writes: "Rants welcomed."